Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 20

Maccabi Netanya–Hapoel Hadera

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 January 2025 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Miriam Stadium, Netanya

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'Maccabi NetanyaF. Vargas (assist: I. Zlatanović)
22'Hapoel HaderaI. Sangaré
63'Maccabi NetanyaYuval Sade
75'Hapoel HaderaL. Eissat · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Maccabi Netanya		Hapoel Hadera
7	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	6
2	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
400	Passes	333
319	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Netanya 1.90 · Hapoel Hadera 0.83. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Maccabi Netanya 7 · Hapoel Hadera 11; on target 3 and 5.

Referee

D. Tzino→

4.90

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.8%: “Maccabi Netanya to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.90 for Maccabi Netanya, 0.83 for Hapoel Hadera.
The highest double chance value is 85.7% (1X — Maccabi Netanya win or draw).
These values were computed from 562 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Netanya to win62.8%

Draw22.9%

Hapoel Hadera to win14.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	7

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–1

Maccabi Netanya lead at half-time38.9%

Level at half-time41.4%

Hapoel Hadera lead at half-time19.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Netanya ahead or level80.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Hapoel Hadera ahead61.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 561 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Netanya: at least 12Actual: 17
Hapoel Hadera: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Maccabi Netanya: at least 4Actual: 6
Hapoel Hadera: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Netanya score1.90

Attack: Maccabi Netanya score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Hadera concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.90 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Hadera score0.83

Attack: Hapoel Hadera score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Netanya's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.83 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.1%1–011.7%1–111.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.