Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 20

Beitar Jerusalem–Bnei Sakhnin

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 January 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Teddi Malcha Stadium, Jerusalem

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

39'Beitar JerusalemO. Atzili (assist: G. Morozov)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Beitar Jerusalem		Bnei Sakhnin
9	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	3
4	Offsides	2
60%	Possession	40%
408	Passes	267
321	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Beitar Jerusalem 1.83 · Bnei Sakhnin 0.92. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Beitar Jerusalem 9 · Bnei Sakhnin 5; on target 5 and 2.
Beitar Jerusalem kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

O. Grinfeeld→

4.58

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.9%: “Beitar Jerusalem to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.83 for Beitar Jerusalem, 0.92 for Bnei Sakhnin.
The highest double chance value is 82.9% (1X — Beitar Jerusalem win or draw).
These values were computed from 557 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Beitar Jerusalem to win58.9%

Draw24.0%

Bnei Sakhnin to win17.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,652 of 2,776 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	14

4	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Beitar Jerusalem lead at half-time37.8%

Level at half-time42.5%

Bnei Sakhnin lead at half-time19.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Beitar Jerusalem ahead or level80.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or Bnei Sakhnin ahead62.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 556 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Beitar Jerusalem: at least 11Actual: 16
Bnei Sakhnin: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Beitar Jerusalem: at least 5Actual: 7
Bnei Sakhnin: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Beitar Jerusalem score1.83

Attack: Beitar Jerusalem score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Bnei Sakhnin's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.83 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bnei Sakhnin score0.92

Attack: Bnei Sakhnin score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Beitar Jerusalem's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%2–010.9%1–010.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.