Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 18

Ironi Tiberias–Maccabi Tel Aviv

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 January 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Green Stadium, Nazareth Illit

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'Maccabi Tel AvivD. Turgeman (penalty)
47'Maccabi Tel AvivN. Stojic
52'Ironi TiberiasB. Zaarura (assist: S. Bilenkyi)
90'Ironi TiberiasH. Shapso (assist: B. Zaarura)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ironi Tiberias 0.74 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.74. On the pitch: 2-2.

Referee

D. Tzino→

4.95

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.6%: “Maccabi Tel Aviv to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.74 for Ironi Tiberias, 1.74 for Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The highest double chance value is 85.9% (X2 — draw or Maccabi Tel Aviv win).
These values were computed from 547 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ironi Tiberias to win14.1%

Draw24.3%

Maccabi Tel Aviv to win61.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–1

Ironi Tiberias lead at half-time11.5%

Level at half-time41.4%

Maccabi Tel Aviv lead at half-time47.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Ironi Tiberias ahead or level52.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Maccabi Tel Aviv ahead88.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 546 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ironi Tiberias: at least 11
Maccabi Tel Aviv: at least 10

Corners

Ironi Tiberias: at least 3
Maccabi Tel Aviv: at least 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ironi Tiberias score0.74

Attack: Ironi Tiberias score below the league average (39% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Tel Aviv concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.74 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Tel Aviv score1.74

Attack: Maccabi Tel Aviv score 58% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Ironi Tiberias's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–113.9%0–213.1%1–112.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.