Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 16

Ashdod–Bnei Sakhnin

3–5

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Tuesday, 31 December 2024 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yud-Alef Stadium, Ashdod

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 4.5% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'AshdodM. Kna'an (assist: S. Nachmani)
13'Bnei SakhninI. Abu Abaid (penalty)
39'Bnei SakhninA. Ramalingom (assist: A. Salman)
41'AshdodR. Levy (assist: M. Kna'an)
72'Bnei SakhninA. Ramalingom (assist: O. Darwish)
79'Bnei SakhninAriel Harush

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ashdod		Bnei Sakhnin
13	Shots	15
6	Shots on target	6
10	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	9
1	Offsides	4
57%	Possession	43%
461	Passes	337
382	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ashdod 1.15 · Bnei Sakhnin 1.06. On the pitch: 3-5.
Shots Ashdod 13 · Bnei Sakhnin 15; on target 6 and 6.
Ashdod kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

D. Tzino→

5.11

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.7%: “Ashdod to win”. Second comes “Bnei Sakhnin to win” at 32.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.15 for Ashdod, 1.06 for Bnei Sakhnin.
The highest double chance value is 68.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 531 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ashdod to win36.7%

Draw31.1%

Bnei Sakhnin to win32.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–2

Ashdod lead at half-time21.3%

Level at half-time45.2%

Bnei Sakhnin lead at half-time33.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Ashdod ahead or level66.5%

12 — not level at half-time54.8%

X2 — level or Bnei Sakhnin ahead78.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 530 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ashdod: at least 11Actual: 9
Bnei Sakhnin: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Ashdod: at least 3Actual: 2
Bnei Sakhnin: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ashdod score1.15

Attack: Ashdod score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bnei Sakhnin's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bnei Sakhnin score1.06

Attack: Bnei Sakhnin score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ashdod's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%1–011.8%0–110.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.