Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 12

Bnei Sakhnin–Hapoel Haifa

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 3 December 2024 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Acre Municipal Stadium, Accre

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

72'Hapoel HaifaG. Melamed (assist: O. Dgani)
90+1'Hapoel HaifaG. Melamed (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bnei Sakhnin		Hapoel Haifa
7	Shots	10
2	Shots on target	4
4	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	3
3	Offsides	0
53%	Possession	47%
427	Passes	384
347	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bnei Sakhnin 1.03 · Hapoel Haifa 1.16. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Bnei Sakhnin 7 · Hapoel Haifa 10; on target 2 and 4.

Referee

V. Bondarev→

5.00

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.0%: “Hapoel Haifa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.03 for Bnei Sakhnin, 1.16 for Hapoel Haifa.
The highest double chance value is 69.1% (X2 — draw or Hapoel Haifa win).
These values were computed from 501 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bnei Sakhnin to win30.9%

Draw31.2%

Hapoel Haifa to win38.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	6

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Bnei Sakhnin lead at half-time23.8%

Level at half-time49.0%

Hapoel Haifa lead at half-time27.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Bnei Sakhnin ahead or level72.8%

12 — not level at half-time51.0%

X2 — level or Hapoel Haifa ahead76.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 500 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bnei Sakhnin: at least 12Actual: 12
Hapoel Haifa: at least 10Actual: 6

Corners

Bnei Sakhnin: at least 3Actual: 6
Hapoel Haifa: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bnei Sakhnin score1.03

Attack: Bnei Sakhnin score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Haifa's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Haifa score1.16

Attack: Hapoel Haifa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bnei Sakhnin's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%0–112.2%0–010.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.