1. Division · Cyprus · Championship Round - 10

Apollon Limassol–Aris

2–3

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'Apollon LimassolT. Wouter
49'Apollon LimassolPedro Marques
67'ArisY. Gomis
80'ArisMorgan Brown
90+2'ArisK. Struski

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Apollon Limassol 0.99 · Aris 1.30. On the pitch: 2-3.

Referee

C. Theouli→

4.17

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.8%: “Aris to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.99 for Apollon Limassol, 1.30 for Aris.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (X2 — draw or Aris win).
These values were computed from 631 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Apollon Limassol to win27.2%

Draw30.0%

Aris to win42.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 1–0

Apollon Limassol lead at half-time23.6%

Level at half-time43.9%

Aris lead at half-time32.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Apollon Limassol ahead or level67.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Aris ahead76.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 630 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Apollon Limassol: at least 10
Aris: at least 14

Corners

Apollon Limassol: at least 5
Aris: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Apollon Limassol score0.99

Attack: Apollon Limassol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aris concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aris score1.30

Attack: Aris score above the league average (43% more).

Opponent's defence: Apollon Limassol concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.30 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%0–112.4%0–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.