1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Round - 6

Omonia 29is Maiou–Nea Salamis

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 5 May 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

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Goals and red cards

52'Nea SalamisA. Mavroudis

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Omonia 29is Maiou 1.34 · Nea Salamis 1.04. On the pitch: 0-1.

Referee

K. Christou→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.7%: “Omonia 29is Maiou to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Omonia 29is Maiou, 1.04 for Nea Salamis.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (1X — Omonia 29is Maiou win or draw).
These values were computed from 627 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Omonia 29is Maiou to win42.7%

Draw29.4%

Nea Salamis to win27.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Omonia 29is Maiou win or draw72.1%

12 — any result other than a draw70.6%

X2 — draw or Nea Salamis win57.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Omonia 29is Maiou lead at half-time31.0%

Level at half-time43.2%

Nea Salamis lead at half-time25.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Omonia 29is Maiou ahead or level74.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Nea Salamis ahead69.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 626 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Omonia 29is Maiou: at least 11
Nea Salamis: at least 12

Corners

Omonia 29is Maiou: at least 6
Nea Salamis: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Omonia 29is Maiou score1.34

Attack: Omonia 29is Maiou score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Nea Salamis concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nea Salamis score1.04

Attack: Nea Salamis score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Omonia 29is Maiou concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–011.6%2–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.