1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Round - 6

Ethnikos Achna–AEL

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 May 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Dasaki Achnas, Dasaki Achnas

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Goals and red cards

60'Ethnikos AchnaBreno Almeida
86'Ethnikos AchnaE. Lomotey

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ethnikos Achna 1.68 · AEL 1.05. On the pitch: 2-0.

Referee

A. Techrany→

4.17

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.0%: “Ethnikos Achna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.68 for Ethnikos Achna, 1.05 for AEL.
The highest double chance value is 77.9% (1X — Ethnikos Achna win or draw).
These values were computed from 624 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ethnikos Achna to win52.0%

Draw25.9%

AEL to win22.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Ethnikos Achna win or draw77.9%

12 — any result other than a draw74.1%

X2 — draw or AEL win48.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Ethnikos Achna lead at half-time31.8%

Level at half-time42.8%

AEL lead at half-time25.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Ethnikos Achna ahead or level74.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.2%

X2 — level or AEL ahead68.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 623 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ethnikos Achna: at least 13
AEL: at least 13

Corners

Ethnikos Achna: at least 4
AEL: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals52.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ethnikos Achna score1.68

Attack: Ethnikos Achna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AEL concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AEL score1.05

Attack: AEL score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ethnikos Achna concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–110.7%1–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.