1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Round - 4

Omonia 29is Maiou–Enosis

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 April 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

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Goals and red cards

24'EnosisS. Thandi
27'EnosisS. Thandi

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Omonia 29is Maiou 1.22 · Enosis 1.03. On the pitch: 0-2.

Referee

C. Theouli→

4.20

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.5%: “Omonia 29is Maiou to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.22 for Omonia 29is Maiou, 1.03 for Enosis.
The highest double chance value is 70.2% (1X — Omonia 29is Maiou win or draw).
These values were computed from 615 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Omonia 29is Maiou to win39.5%

Draw30.6%

Enosis to win29.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Omonia 29is Maiou win or draw70.2%

12 — any result other than a draw69.4%

X2 — draw or Enosis win60.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (30.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–2

Omonia 29is Maiou lead at half-time29.8%

Level at half-time46.1%

Enosis lead at half-time24.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Omonia 29is Maiou ahead or level75.9%

12 — not level at half-time53.9%

X2 — level or Enosis ahead70.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 614 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Omonia 29is Maiou: at least 13
Enosis: at least 13

Corners

Omonia 29is Maiou: at least 5
Enosis: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (48.5%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Omonia 29is Maiou score1.22

Attack: Omonia 29is Maiou score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Enosis concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Enosis score1.03

Attack: Enosis score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Omonia 29is Maiou concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%1–012.1%0–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.