1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Round - 4

Nea Salamis–AEL

1–3

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 April 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi, Larnaca

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Goals and red cards

52'AELI. Trichkovski
59'AELA. Panagiotou Filiotis
84'Nea SalamisA. Plumain (penalty)
90+3'AELE. Toku

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nea Salamis 1.28 · AEL 1.27. On the pitch: 1-3.

Referee

M. Antoniou→

4.30

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.9%: “Nea Salamis to win”. Second comes “AEL to win” at 35.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for Nea Salamis, 1.27 for AEL.
The highest double chance value is 71.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 615 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nea Salamis to win35.9%

Draw28.8%

AEL to win35.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Nea Salamis win or draw64.7%

12 — any result other than a draw71.2%

X2 — draw or AEL win64.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Nea Salamis lead at half-time28.4%

Level at half-time42.2%

AEL lead at half-time29.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Nea Salamis ahead or level70.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or AEL ahead71.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 614 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nea Salamis: at least 11
AEL: at least 12

Corners

Nea Salamis: at least 4
AEL: at least 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nea Salamis score1.28

Attack: Nea Salamis score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AEL concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AEL score1.27

Attack: AEL score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Nea Salamis concede 32% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%1–09.1%0–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.