1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Round - 3

Omonia Aradippou–Nea Salamis

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 7 April 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Antonis Papadopoulos, Larnaca

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Goals and red cards

19'Nea SalamisA. Vellios
23'Omonia AradippouGeorgios Christodoulou · red card
90+5'Nea SalamisF. Durmishaj · red card
90+7'Nea SalamisY. Bahassa

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Omonia Aradippou 1.59 · Nea Salamis 1.03. On the pitch: 0-2.

Referee

P. Hadjigeorghiou→

4.40

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.1%: “Omonia Aradippou to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for Omonia Aradippou, 1.03 for Nea Salamis.
The highest double chance value is 76.9% (1X — Omonia Aradippou win or draw).
These values were computed from 615 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Omonia Aradippou to win50.1%

Draw26.9%

Nea Salamis to win23.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Omonia Aradippou win or draw76.9%

12 — any result other than a draw73.1%

X2 — draw or Nea Salamis win49.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Omonia Aradippou lead at half-time34.2%

Level at half-time41.3%

Nea Salamis lead at half-time24.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Omonia Aradippou ahead or level75.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.7%

X2 — level or Nea Salamis ahead65.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 614 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Omonia Aradippou: at least 11
Nea Salamis: at least 12

Corners

Omonia Aradippou: at least 7
Nea Salamis: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,317 of 4,968 predictions were correct (46.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Omonia Aradippou score1.59

Attack: Omonia Aradippou score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Nea Salamis concede 32% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nea Salamis score1.03

Attack: Nea Salamis score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Omonia Aradippou concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–010.8%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.