1. Division · Cyprus · Championship Round - 4

Omonia Nicosia–Aris

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 April 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Neo GSP, Levkosía

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'Omonia NicosiaW. Semedo
34'ArisMihlali Mayambela
46'Omonia NicosiaL. Loizou

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Omonia Nicosia 1.14 · Aris 1.46. On the pitch: 2-1.

Referee

David Silva→

5.05

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.7%: “Aris to win”. Second comes “Omonia Nicosia to win” at 28.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.14 for Omonia Nicosia, 1.46 for Aris.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 614 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Omonia Nicosia to win28.3%

Draw28.0%

Aris to win43.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–1

Omonia Nicosia lead at half-time24.4%

Level at half-time43.7%

Aris lead at half-time31.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Omonia Nicosia ahead or level68.1%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or Aris ahead75.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 613 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Omonia Nicosia: at least 9
Aris: at least 14

Corners

Omonia Nicosia: at least 5
Aris: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals48.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,317 of 4,968 predictions were correct (46.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Omonia Nicosia score1.14

Attack: Omonia Nicosia score above the league average (47% more).

Opponent's defence: Aris concede 46% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.14 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Aris score1.46

Attack: Aris score above the league average (44% more).

Opponent's defence: Omonia Nicosia's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%0–19.9%1–29.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.