1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Round - 3

Karmiotissa–Anorthosis

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 April 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi, Larnaca

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Goals and red cards

86'AnorthosisÁ. Gyurcsó

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Karmiotissa 1.13 · Anorthosis 1.61. On the pitch: 0-1.

Referee

K. Fellas→

4.94

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.8%: “Anorthosis to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for Karmiotissa, 1.61 for Anorthosis.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (X2 — draw or Anorthosis win).
These values were computed from 612 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Karmiotissa to win25.5%

Draw26.7%

Anorthosis to win47.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Karmiotissa win or draw52.2%

12 — any result other than a draw73.3%

X2 — draw or Anorthosis win74.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Karmiotissa lead at half-time21.6%

Level at half-time43.7%

Anorthosis lead at half-time34.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Karmiotissa ahead or level65.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or Anorthosis ahead78.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 611 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Karmiotissa: at least 12
Anorthosis: at least 13

Corners

Karmiotissa: at least 4
Anorthosis: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals52.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,889 of 5,365 predictions were correct (53.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Karmiotissa score1.13

Attack: Karmiotissa score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Anorthosis's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Anorthosis score1.61

Attack: Anorthosis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Karmiotissa concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–210.4%0–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.