1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Round - 3

Ethnikos Achna–Omonia 29is Maiou

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 April 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Dasaki Achnas, Dasaki Achnas

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Goals and red cards

14'Ethnikos AchnaJulián Bonetto
34'Ethnikos AchnaM. de Iriondo
80'Ethnikos AchnaM. de Iriondo
90+1'Omonia 29is MaiouS. Fiakas

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ethnikos Achna 1.76 · Omonia 29is Maiou 0.87. On the pitch: 3-1.

Referee

C. Photiou→

4.56

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.4%: “Ethnikos Achna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.76 for Ethnikos Achna, 0.87 for Omonia 29is Maiou.
The highest double chance value is 83.1% (1X — Ethnikos Achna win or draw).
These values were computed from 612 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ethnikos Achna to win58.4%

Draw24.7%

Omonia 29is Maiou to win16.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,775 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Ethnikos Achna win or draw83.1%

12 — any result other than a draw75.3%

X2 — draw or Omonia 29is Maiou win41.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.7%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Ethnikos Achna lead at half-time37.0%

Level at half-time43.1%

Omonia 29is Maiou lead at half-time19.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Ethnikos Achna ahead or level80.1%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Omonia 29is Maiou ahead63.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 611 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ethnikos Achna: at least 13
Omonia 29is Maiou: at least 12

Corners

Ethnikos Achna: at least 4
Omonia 29is Maiou: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,317 of 4,968 predictions were correct (46.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ethnikos Achna score1.76

Attack: Ethnikos Achna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Omonia 29is Maiou concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Omonia 29is Maiou score0.87

Attack: Omonia 29is Maiou score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ethnikos Achna concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%1–011.9%2–011.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.