1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 24

Omonia Aradippou–Ethnikos Achna

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 February 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Antonis Papadopoulos, Larnaca

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'Omonia AradippouJorginho
51'Ethnikos AchnaJulián Bonetto (penalty)
66'Ethnikos AchnaD. Tetour
90+4'Omonia AradippouA. Theocharous

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Omonia Aradippou 1.22 · Ethnikos Achna 1.51. On the pitch: 2-2.

Referee

M. Antoniou→

4.30

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.0%: “Ethnikos Achna to win”. Second comes “Omonia Aradippou to win” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.22 for Omonia Aradippou, 1.51 for Ethnikos Achna.
The highest double chance value is 72.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 584 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Omonia Aradippou to win29.6%

Draw27.4%

Ethnikos Achna to win43.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–0

Omonia Aradippou lead at half-time24.8%

Level at half-time41.9%

Ethnikos Achna lead at half-time33.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Omonia Aradippou ahead or level66.6%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Ethnikos Achna ahead75.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 583 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Omonia Aradippou: at least 12
Ethnikos Achna: at least 13

Corners

Omonia Aradippou: at least 5
Ethnikos Achna: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Omonia Aradippou score1.22

Attack: Omonia Aradippou score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ethnikos Achna concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ethnikos Achna score1.51

Attack: Ethnikos Achna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Omonia Aradippou concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–29.9%0–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.