1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 22

Omonia Aradippou–Pafos

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 February 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Antonis Papadopoulos, Larnaca

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'PafosAnderson Silva
56'PafosV. Dragomir
61'Omonia AradippouB. Fomba · red card

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Omonia Aradippou 0.60 · Pafos 2.03. On the pitch: 0-2.

Referee

K. Athanasiou→

4.93

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.7%: “Pafos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.60 for Omonia Aradippou, 2.03 for Pafos.
The highest double chance value is 91.4% (X2 — draw or Pafos win).
These values were computed from 570 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Omonia Aradippou to win8.6%

Draw19.7%

Pafos to win71.7%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 0–1

Omonia Aradippou lead at half-time12.0%

Level at half-time39.9%

Pafos lead at half-time48.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Omonia Aradippou ahead or level52.0%

12 — not level at half-time60.1%

X2 — level or Pafos ahead88.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 569 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Omonia Aradippou: at least 11
Pafos: at least 14

Corners

Omonia Aradippou: at least 4
Pafos: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,317 of 4,968 predictions were correct (46.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Omonia Aradippou score0.60

Attack: Omonia Aradippou score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Pafos concede 44% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pafos score2.03

Attack: Pafos score above the league average (40% more).

Opponent's defence: Omonia Aradippou concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.03 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–215.5%0–114.1%0–310.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.