1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 20

Omonia 29is Maiou–Apollon Limassol

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 January 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 16%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'Apollon LimassolC. Boli
43'Omonia 29is MaiouN. Trujic
90+3'Omonia 29is MaiouJay Enem

Match statistics

Match statistics
Omonia 29is Maiou		Apollon Limassol
5	Shots	10
2	Shots on target	3
3	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	3
1	Offsides	0
45%	Possession	55%
311	Passes	405
237	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Omonia 29is Maiou 0.79 · Apollon Limassol 1.65. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Omonia 29is Maiou 5 · Apollon Limassol 10; on target 2 and 3.
Apollon Limassol kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

C. Photiou→

4.56

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.1%: “Apollon Limassol to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.79 for Omonia 29is Maiou, 1.65 for Apollon Limassol.
The highest double chance value is 83.8% (X2 — draw or Apollon Limassol win).
These values were computed from 556 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Omonia 29is Maiou to win16.2%

Draw25.7%

Apollon Limassol to win58.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,652 of 2,776 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Omonia 29is Maiou lead at half-time13.1%

Level at half-time44.2%

Apollon Limassol lead at half-time42.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Omonia 29is Maiou ahead or level57.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.8%

X2 — level or Apollon Limassol ahead86.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 555 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Omonia 29is Maiou: at least 11Actual: 11
Apollon Limassol: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Omonia 29is Maiou: at least 4
Apollon Limassol: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Omonia 29is Maiou score0.79

Attack: Omonia 29is Maiou score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Apollon Limassol concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Apollon Limassol score1.65

Attack: Apollon Limassol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Omonia 29is Maiou concede 33% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–113.8%1–112.9%0–212.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.