1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 17

Omonia Nicosia–Anorthosis

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 7 January 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Neo GSP, Levkosía

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 15%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

41'AnorthosisEvagoras Charalampous
46'AnorthosisA. Roguljic

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Omonia Nicosia 1.93 · Anorthosis 0.89. On the pitch: 0-2.

Referee

P. Hadjigeorghiou→

4.58

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.0%: “Omonia Nicosia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.93 for Omonia Nicosia, 0.89 for Anorthosis.
The highest double chance value is 84.8% (1X — Omonia Nicosia win or draw).
These values were computed from 536 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Omonia Nicosia to win62.0%

Draw22.8%

Anorthosis to win15.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,247 of 1,995 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Omonia Nicosia win or draw84.8%

12 — any result other than a draw77.2%

X2 — draw or Anorthosis win38.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Omonia Nicosia lead at half-time42.6%

Level at half-time41.9%

Anorthosis lead at half-time15.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Omonia Nicosia ahead or level84.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Anorthosis ahead57.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 535 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Omonia Nicosia: at least 12
Anorthosis: at least 13

Corners

Omonia Nicosia: at least 5
Anorthosis: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,683 of 4,996 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Omonia Nicosia score1.93

Attack: Omonia Nicosia score above the league average (48% more).

Opponent's defence: Anorthosis's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.93 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Anorthosis score0.89

Attack: Anorthosis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Omonia Nicosia concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%2–011.4%2–110.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.