1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 16

Apoel Nicosia–Karmiotissa

3–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 January 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Neo GSP, Levkosía

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

49'Apoel NicosiaS. Dražić
78'Apoel NicosiaY. El Arabi
86'Apoel NicosiaY. El Arabi

Match statistics

Match statistics
Apoel Nicosia		Karmiotissa
15	Shots	5
6	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	1
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
11	Corners	1
1	Offsides	1
69%	Possession	31%
676	Passes	273
601	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Apoel Nicosia 2.59 · Karmiotissa 0.52. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Apoel Nicosia 15 · Karmiotissa 5; on target 6 and 1.
Apoel Nicosia kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

C. Photiou→

4.71

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 82.8%: “Apoel Nicosia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 12.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.59 for Apoel Nicosia, 0.52 for Karmiotissa.
The highest double chance value is 95.6% (1X — Apoel Nicosia win or draw).
These values were computed from 531 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Apoel Nicosia to win82.8%

Draw12.8%

Karmiotissa to win4.4%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 481 of 572 predictions were correct (84.1%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Apoel Nicosia lead at half-time52.7%

Level at half-time37.7%

Karmiotissa lead at half-time9.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Apoel Nicosia ahead or level90.4%

12 — not level at half-time62.3%

X2 — level or Karmiotissa ahead47.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 530 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Apoel Nicosia: at least 13Actual: 9
Karmiotissa: at least 14Actual: 10

Corners

Apoel Nicosia: at least 5Actual: 11
Karmiotissa: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Apoel Nicosia score2.59

Attack: Apoel Nicosia score above the league average (44% more).

Opponent's defence: Karmiotissa concede 35% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.59 goals.

How many goals Karmiotissa score0.52

Attack: Karmiotissa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Apoel Nicosia concede 39% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.52 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–015.5%3–013.5%1–010.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.