1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 9

Anorthosis–AEL

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 4 November 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Antonis Papadopoulos, Larnaca

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

31'AnorthosisRafa Lopes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Anorthosis 1.49 · AEL 1.28. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

P. Hadjigeorghiou→

4.54

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.3%: “Anorthosis to win”. Second comes “AEL to win” at 31.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Anorthosis, 1.28 for AEL.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 483 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Anorthosis to win41.3%

Draw27.3%

AEL to win31.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Anorthosis win or draw68.6%

12 — any result other than a draw72.7%

X2 — draw or AEL win58.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.3%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Anorthosis lead at half-time31.6%

Level at half-time41.8%

AEL lead at half-time26.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Anorthosis ahead or level73.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or AEL ahead68.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 482 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Anorthosis: at least 12
AEL: at least 14

Corners

Anorthosis: at least 5
AEL: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Anorthosis score1.49

Attack: Anorthosis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AEL's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AEL score1.28

Attack: AEL score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Anorthosis's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%2–19.7%1–08.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.