1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 4

AEK Larnaca–Ethnikos Achna

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 September 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: AEK Arena - George Karapatakis, Larnaca

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 20%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'Ethnikos AchnaPablo Gonzalez
54'AEK LarnacaBruno Gama
63'AEK LarnacaR. Ofori (own goal)
71'Ethnikos AchnaP. Lipski

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AEK Larnaca 2.12 · Ethnikos Achna 0.80. On the pitch: 2-2.

Referee

C. Photiou→

4.65

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.3%: “AEK Larnaca to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.12 for AEK Larnaca, 0.80 for Ethnikos Achna.
The highest double chance value is 88.4% (1X — AEK Larnaca win or draw).
These values were computed from 445 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AEK Larnaca to win68.3%

Draw20.1%

Ethnikos Achna to win11.6%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–1

AEK Larnaca lead at half-time42.0%

Level at half-time39.4%

Ethnikos Achna lead at half-time18.6%

First-half double chance

1X — AEK Larnaca ahead or level81.4%

12 — not level at half-time60.6%

X2 — level or Ethnikos Achna ahead58.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 444 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AEK Larnaca: at least 11
Ethnikos Achna: at least 14

Corners

AEK Larnaca: at least 5
Ethnikos Achna: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AEK Larnaca score2.12

Attack: AEK Larnaca score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Ethnikos Achna concede 37% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ethnikos Achna score0.80

Attack: Ethnikos Achna score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: AEK Larnaca concede 41% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.80 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.4%2–110.7%1–010.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.