1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 1

Karmiotissa–Aris

1–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 August 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi, Larnaca

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'ArisK. Struski
60'ArisA. Kokorin
79'ArisZ. Sawo
88'KarmiotissaB. Cmiljanic

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Karmiotissa 0.84 · Aris 2.11. On the pitch: 1-3.

Referee

A. Techrany→

3.67

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.3%: “Aris to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.84 for Karmiotissa, 2.11 for Aris.
The highest double chance value is 87.7% (X2 — draw or Aris win).
These values were computed from 424 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Karmiotissa to win12.3%

Draw20.5%

Aris to win67.3%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–1

Karmiotissa lead at half-time11.3%

Level at half-time37.2%

Aris lead at half-time51.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Karmiotissa ahead or level48.5%

12 — not level at half-time62.8%

X2 — level or Aris ahead88.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 423 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Karmiotissa: at least 10
Aris: at least 15

Corners

Karmiotissa: at least 3
Aris: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals57.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,356 of 4,135 predictions were correct (57.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Karmiotissa score0.84

Attack: Karmiotissa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aris concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.84 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aris score2.11

Attack: Aris score above the league average (39% more).

Opponent's defence: Karmiotissa concede 31% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.11 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–212.0%1–210.8%1–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.