Superliga · Denmark · Relegation Round - 8

Viborg–Aalborg

3–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 11 May 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Viborg Stadion, Vyborg

Goals and red cards

53'ViborgLars Kramer (own goal)
65'AalborgN. Helenius (assist: M. Jorgensen)
75'ViborgT. Jørgensen
82'ViborgS. Radic (assist: M. Søndergaard)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Viborg		Aalborg
22	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	8
0	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
479	Passes	397
415	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Viborg 1.99 · Aalborg 1.29. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Viborg 22 · Aalborg 11; on target 7 and 3.

Referee

J. Hansen→

3.78

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.5%: “Viborg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.99 for Viborg, 1.29 for Aalborg.
The highest double chance value is 76.8% (1X — Viborg win or draw).
These values were computed from 479 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Viborg to win53.5%

Draw23.3%

Aalborg to win23.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	20

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Viborg lead at half-time47.3%

Level at half-time37.9%

Aalborg lead at half-time14.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Viborg ahead or level85.3%

12 — not level at half-time62.1%

X2 — level or Aalborg ahead52.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 479 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Viborg: at least 9Actual: 15
Aalborg: at least 10Actual: 20

Corners

Viborg: at least 4Actual: 8
Aalborg: at least 5Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals64.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,830 of 2,908 predictions were correct (62.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 55.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Viborg score1.99

Attack: Viborg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aalborg concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.99 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aalborg score1.29

Attack: Aalborg score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Viborg concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.8%2–110.6%2–07.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.