Superliga · Denmark · Relegation Round - 6

Aalborg–Vejle

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 28 April 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Aalborg Portland Park, Aalborg

Goals and red cards

64'VejleS. Velkov (assist: Hamza Barry)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aalborg		Vejle
15	Shots	5
3	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	8
2	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
373	Passes	390
267	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aalborg 1.73 · Vejle 1.36. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Aalborg 15 · Vejle 5; on target 3 and 2.

Referee

S. Putros→

4.45

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.7%: “Aalborg to win”. Second comes “Vejle to win” at 28.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.73 for Aalborg, 1.36 for Vejle.
The highest double chance value is 74.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 474 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aalborg to win45.7%

Draw25.4%

Vejle to win28.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Aalborg win or draw71.1%

12 — any result other than a draw74.6%

X2 — draw or Vejle win54.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Aalborg lead at half-time27.2%

Level at half-time45.5%

Vejle lead at half-time27.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Aalborg ahead or level72.6%

12 — not level at half-time54.5%

X2 — level or Vejle ahead72.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 474 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aalborg: at least 8Actual: 10
Vejle: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Aalborg: at least 6Actual: 5
Vejle: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,830 of 2,908 predictions were correct (62.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aalborg score1.73

Attack: Aalborg score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Vejle concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vejle score1.36

Attack: Vejle score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Aalborg concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%2–110.2%1–27.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.