Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 6

Vejle–Silkeborg

1–3

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 August 2024 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Vejle Stadion, Vejle

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

57'SilkeborgT. Adamsen (assist: A. Poulsen)
73'SilkeborgT. Adamsen
89'VejleHamza Barry
90+3'SilkeborgA. Simmelhack (assist: T. Adamsen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vejle		Silkeborg
24	Shots	10
11	Shots on target	6
21	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	10
6	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
44%	Possession	56%
459	Passes	590
376	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vejle 1.23 · Silkeborg 1.52. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Vejle 24 · Silkeborg 10; on target 11 and 6.
Silkeborg kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

S. Rasmussen→

3.67

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.2%: “Silkeborg to win”. Second comes “Vejle to win” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for Vejle, 1.52 for Silkeborg.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 356 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vejle to win29.6%

Draw27.2%

Silkeborg to win43.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	6

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Vejle lead at half-time30.1%

Level at half-time42.9%

Silkeborg lead at half-time27.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Vejle ahead or level73.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Silkeborg ahead69.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 356 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vejle: at least 11Actual: 12
Silkeborg: at least 7Actual: 6

Corners

Vejle: at least 4Actual: 6
Silkeborg: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vejle score1.23

Attack: Vejle score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Silkeborg's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Silkeborg score1.52

Attack: Silkeborg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vejle's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–210.0%0–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.