Primeira Liga · Portugal · Relegation Round

AVS–Vizela

3–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 May 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Vila das Aves

Goals and red cards

62'AVSGustavo Assunção (penalty)
67'AVSB. Akinsola (assist: Fernando Fonseca)
70'AVSB. Akinsola (assist: Rafael Rodrigues)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AVS		Vizela
12	Shots	15
5	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	7
0	Offsides	3
32%	Possession	68%
204	Passes	426
138	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AVS 1.28 · Vizela 1.30. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots AVS 12 · Vizela 15; on target 5 and 3.
Vizela kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

Gustavo Correia→

5.91

yellows per match

0.44

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.2%: “Vizela to win”. Second comes “AVS to win” at 35.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for AVS, 1.30 for Vizela.
The highest double chance value is 71.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 918 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AVS to win35.2%

Draw28.6%

Vizela to win36.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,772 of 6,687 predictions were correct (56.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — AVS win or draw63.8%

12 — any result other than a draw71.4%

X2 — draw or Vizela win64.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

AVS lead at half-time26.5%

Level at half-time45.5%

Vizela lead at half-time28.0%

First-half double chance

1X — AVS ahead or level72.0%

12 — not level at half-time54.5%

X2 — level or Vizela ahead73.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 918 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AVS: at least 14Actual: 13
Vizela: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

AVS: at least 4Actual: 3
Vizela: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (50.7%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AVS score1.28

Attack: AVS score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Vizela concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vizela score1.30

Attack: Vizela score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AVS concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–28.9%0–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 918 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 34 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.