Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 34

Arouca–Boavista

4–1

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 May 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'AroucaMiguel Puche (assist: T. Fukui)
17'AroucaA. Trezza (assist: H. Araujo)
22'BoavistaR. Boženík (assist: A. Diaby)
25'AroucaH. Araujo (assist: Weverson)
90+4'AroucaD. Nandin (assist: A. Trezza)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arouca		Boavista
14	Shots	21
7	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	12
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	11
4	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
419	Passes	288
338	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arouca 1.73 · Boavista 0.92. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Arouca 14 · Boavista 21; on target 7 and 5.
Arouca kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

André Narciso→

5.30

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.2%: “Arouca to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.64 for Arouca, 1.15 for Boavista.
The highest double chance value is 74.6% (1X — Arouca win or draw).
These values were computed from 911 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arouca to win48.2%

Draw26.4%

Boavista to win25.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–1

Arouca lead at half-time38.2%

Level at half-time45.2%

Boavista lead at half-time16.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Arouca ahead or level83.5%

12 — not level at half-time54.8%

X2 — level or Boavista ahead61.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 911 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Arouca: at least 14Actual: 16
Boavista: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Arouca: at least 5Actual: 2
Boavista: at least 3Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arouca score1.73

Attack: Arouca score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Boavista concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Boavista score0.92

Attack: Boavista score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Arouca's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–110.5%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.