Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 34

Sporting CP–Vitória SC

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 May 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

55'Sporting CPPedro Gonçalves (assist: M. Araújo)
82'Sporting CPV. Gyökeres

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting CP		Vitória SC
18	Shots	2
7	Shots on target	0
13	Shots inside the box	1
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	1
1	Offsides	2
54%	Possession	46%
455	Passes	396
391	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting CP 1.94 · Vitória SC 0.76. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Sporting CP 18 · Vitória SC 2; on target 7 and 0.

Referee

Fábio Veríssimo→

5.63

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.5%: “Sporting CP to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.43 for Sporting CP, 0.79 for Vitória SC.
The highest double chance value is 91.2% (1X — Sporting CP win or draw).
These values were computed from 911 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting CP to win74.5%

Draw16.7%

Vitória SC to win8.8%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 3,613 of 7,010 predictions were correct (51.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sporting CP win or draw91.2%

12 — any result other than a draw83.3%

X2 — draw or Vitória SC win25.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (16.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sporting CP lead at half-time52.7%

Level at half-time37.2%

Vitória SC lead at half-time10.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Sporting CP ahead or level89.9%

12 — not level at half-time62.8%

X2 — level or Vitória SC ahead47.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 911 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sporting CP: at least 11Actual: 14
Vitória SC: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

Sporting CP: at least 5Actual: 7
Vitória SC: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals63.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,726 of 2,749 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting CP score1.94

Attack: Sporting CP score 72% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Vitória SC concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vitória SC score0.76

Attack: Vitória SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sporting CP concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.1%2–110.2%3–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 911 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 101 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.