Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 33

Vitória SC–Farense

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 11 May 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 13%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'FarenseMarco Matias (assist: Rui Costa)
47'Vitória SCGustavo Silva (assist: J. Mendes)
90+2'FarenseDarío Poveda

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vitória SC		Farense
21	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	3
15	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
16	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
70%	Possession	30%
535	Passes	238
461	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vitória SC 1.64 · Farense 0.77. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Vitória SC 21 · Farense 7; on target 4 and 3.
Vitória SC kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

David Silva→

5.27

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.3%: “Vitória SC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.84 for Vitória SC, 0.76 for Farense.
The highest double chance value is 86.5% (1X — Vitória SC win or draw).
These values were computed from 906 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vitória SC to win63.3%

Draw23.2%

Farense to win13.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,325 of 2,113 predictions were correct (62.7%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	7

4	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Vitória SC lead at half-time36.5%

Level at half-time46.3%

Farense lead at half-time17.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Vitória SC ahead or level82.8%

12 — not level at half-time53.7%

X2 — level or Farense ahead63.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 906 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vitória SC: at least 13Actual: 15
Farense: at least 13Actual: 7

Corners

Vitória SC: at least 7Actual: 16
Farense: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vitória SC score1.64

Attack: Vitória SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Farense's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Farense score0.77

Attack: Farense score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Vitória SC concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.77 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.0%2–013.0%1–111.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.