Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 33

Estrela–AVS

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 11 May 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio José Gomes, Amadora

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

85'AVSZé Luís (assist: V. Lopes)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Estrela		AVS
11	Shots	18
3	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	13
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
1	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
299	Passes	292
190	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Estrela 1.37 · AVS 0.98. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Estrela 11 · AVS 18; on target 3 and 2.

Referee

Tiago Martins→

6.24

yellows per match

0.35

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.3%: “Estrela to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.25 for Estrela, 0.99 for AVS.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (1X — Estrela win or draw).
These values were computed from 905 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Estrela to win41.3%

Draw30.5%

AVS to win28.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Estrela lead at half-time36.7%

Level at half-time45.9%

AVS lead at half-time17.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Estrela ahead or level82.6%

12 — not level at half-time54.1%

X2 — level or AVS ahead63.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 905 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Estrela: at least 13Actual: 9
AVS: at least 14Actual: 11

Corners

Estrela: at least 4Actual: 1
AVS: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Estrela score1.37

Attack: Estrela score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AVS concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AVS score0.98

Attack: AVS score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Estrela's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–012.6%0–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.