Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 33

Santa Clara–Famalicao

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 May 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'Santa ClaraWendel Silva (assist: Adriano Firmino)
45+1'FamalicaoV. Sejk · red card
58'FamalicaoG. Sa
81'Santa ClaraWendel Silva (assist: P. Ferreira)
84'Santa ClaraSidney Lima · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Santa Clara		Famalicao
16	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	6
3	Offsides	0
47%	Possession	53%
342	Passes	378
289	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Santa Clara 1.33 · Famalicao 0.94. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Santa Clara 16 · Famalicao 12; on target 5 and 4.

Referee

José Bessa→

3.88

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.1%: “Santa Clara to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Santa Clara, 0.85 for Famalicao.
The highest double chance value is 78.9% (1X — Santa Clara win or draw).
These values were computed from 900 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Santa Clara to win50.1%

Draw28.8%

Famalicao to win21.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

23	Fouls	14

7	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Santa Clara lead at half-time30.4%

Level at half-time47.6%

Famalicao lead at half-time22.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Santa Clara ahead or level78.0%

12 — not level at half-time52.4%

X2 — level or Famalicao ahead69.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 900 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Santa Clara: at least 16Actual: 23
Famalicao: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Santa Clara: at least 4Actual: 3
Famalicao: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Santa Clara score1.33

Attack: Santa Clara score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Famalicao's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Famalicao score0.94

Attack: Famalicao score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Santa Clara concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–014.1%2–010.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.