Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 32

AVS–Boavista

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 5 May 2025 at 19:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Vila das Aves

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

62'AVSNene (assist: L. Piazon)
67'BoavistaSebastián Pérez (assist: M. van Ginkel)
89'BoavistaA. Diaby (assist: R. Boženík)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AVS		Boavista
13	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	8
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
332	Passes	401
257	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AVS 1.39 · Boavista 1.11. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots AVS 13 · Boavista 13; on target 5 and 2.
Boavista kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Fábio Veríssimo→

5.62

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.7%: “AVS to win”. Second comes “Boavista to win” at 30.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.30 for AVS, 1.13 for Boavista.
The highest double chance value is 70.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 899 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AVS to win39.7%

Draw29.4%

Boavista to win30.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

21	Fouls	12

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

AVS lead at half-time31.3%

Level at half-time46.0%

Boavista lead at half-time22.7%

First-half double chance

1X — AVS ahead or level77.3%

12 — not level at half-time54.0%

X2 — level or Boavista ahead68.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 899 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AVS: at least 13Actual: 21
Boavista: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

AVS: at least 4Actual: 4
Boavista: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AVS score1.39

Attack: AVS score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Boavista concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Boavista score1.11

Attack: Boavista score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AVS concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–010.6%2–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.