Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 32

Farense–Famalicao

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 May 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio de São Lúis, Faro

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 4.6% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'FamalicaoS. Elisor (assist: G. Sa)
45+4'FarenseFilipe Soares (assist: Claudio Falcão)
90+1'FarenseDarío Poveda (assist: Claudio Falcão)
90+6'FamalicaoPedro Francisco · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Farense		Famalicao
14	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	3
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	10
4	Offsides	0
48%	Possession	52%
271	Passes	306
201	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Farense 1.10 · Famalicao 1.27. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Farense 14 · Famalicao 9; on target 6 and 4.

Referee

André Narciso→

5.20

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.6%: “Famalicao to win”. Second comes “Farense to win” at 33.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.18 for Farense, 1.27 for Famalicao.
The highest double chance value is 70.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 892 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Farense to win33.0%

Draw29.4%

Famalicao to win37.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

22	Fouls	19

7	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–1

Farense lead at half-time24.7%

Level at half-time48.9%

Famalicao lead at half-time26.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Farense ahead or level73.6%

12 — not level at half-time51.1%

X2 — level or Famalicao ahead75.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 892 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Farense: at least 15Actual: 22
Famalicao: at least 12Actual: 19

Corners

Farense: at least 5Actual: 4
Famalicao: at least 4Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Farense score1.10

Attack: Farense score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Famalicao's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Famalicao score1.27

Attack: Famalicao score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Farense's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%0–110.1%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.