Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 31

Vitória SC–Rio Ave

3–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 27 April 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'Vitória SCTheofanis Bakoulas (own goal)
31'Vitória SCJ. Mendes (assist: Jesús Ramírez)
44'Vitória SCTelmo Arcanjo (assist: J. Mendes)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vitória SC		Rio Ave
25	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	5
15	Shots inside the box	5
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
9	Corners	1
3	Offsides	2
59%	Possession	41%
445	Passes	324
388	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vitória SC 1.69 · Rio Ave 0.86. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Vitória SC 25 · Rio Ave 10; on target 6 and 5.
Vitória SC kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

José Bessa→

3.94

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.4%: “Vitória SC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.03 for Vitória SC, 0.80 for Rio Ave.
The highest double chance value is 87.6% (1X — Vitória SC win or draw).
These values were computed from 887 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vitória SC to win66.4%

Draw21.2%

Rio Ave to win12.4%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Vitória SC lead at half-time36.4%

Level at half-time45.0%

Rio Ave lead at half-time18.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Vitória SC ahead or level81.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.0%

X2 — level or Rio Ave ahead63.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 887 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vitória SC: at least 14Actual: 16
Rio Ave: at least 13Actual: 7

Corners

Vitória SC: at least 7Actual: 9
Rio Ave: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vitória SC score1.69

Attack: Vitória SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rio Ave concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rio Ave score0.86

Attack: Rio Ave score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vitória SC concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.86 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.5%1–011.2%1–110.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.