Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 31

GIL Vicente–Farense

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 26 April 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90+2'GIL VicenteM. Bamba

Match statistics

Match statistics
GIL Vicente		Farense
14	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	0
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	1
0	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
435	Passes	381
357	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GIL Vicente 1.31 · Farense 1.02. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots GIL Vicente 14 · Farense 8; on target 3 and 2.

Referee

Gustavo Correia→

6.00

yellows per match

0.46

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.5%: “GIL Vicente to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.19 for GIL Vicente, 1.03 for Farense.
The highest double chance value is 69.4% (1X — GIL Vicente win or draw).
These values were computed from 884 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GIL Vicente to win38.5%

Draw30.9%

Farense to win30.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

GIL Vicente lead at half-time28.7%

Level at half-time49.6%

Farense lead at half-time21.7%

First-half double chance

1X — GIL Vicente ahead or level78.3%

12 — not level at half-time50.4%

X2 — level or Farense ahead71.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 884 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GIL Vicente: at least 11Actual: 16
Farense: at least 15Actual: 12

Corners

GIL Vicente: at least 5Actual: 4
Farense: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GIL Vicente score1.31

Attack: GIL Vicente score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Farense's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Farense score1.02

Attack: Farense score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: GIL Vicente's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%1–012.1%0–010.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.