Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 30

Nacional–GIL Vicente

0–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 19 April 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio da Madeira, Funchal

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

-5'NacionalRui Encarnação · red card
16'GIL VicenteFélix Correia
62'GIL VicentePablo
82'GIL VicenteFélix Correia (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Nacional		GIL Vicente
20	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
9	Corners	0
2	Offsides	1
64%	Possession	36%
405	Passes	237
330	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nacional 1.37 · GIL Vicente 1.01. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Nacional 20 · GIL Vicente 8; on target 6 and 4.
Nacional kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

Iancu Vasilica→

3.81

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.5%: “Nacional to win”. Second comes “GIL Vicente to win” at 31.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Nacional, 1.10 for GIL Vicente.
The highest double chance value is 70.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 877 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nacional to win38.5%

Draw30.0%

GIL Vicente to win31.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Nacional lead at half-time36.5%

Level at half-time45.6%

GIL Vicente lead at half-time18.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Nacional ahead or level82.0%

12 — not level at half-time54.4%

X2 — level or GIL Vicente ahead63.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 877 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nacional: at least 14Actual: 8
GIL Vicente: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Nacional: at least 4
GIL Vicente: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nacional score1.37

Attack: Nacional score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: GIL Vicente's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals GIL Vicente score1.01

Attack: GIL Vicente score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Nacional's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–011.1%0–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.