Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 30

Sporting CP–Moreirense

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 18 April 2025 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'Sporting CPV. Gyökeres
25'Sporting CPV. Gyökeres
52'Sporting CPV. Gyökeres
56'MoreirenseC. Teguia (assist: G. Frimpong)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting CP		Moreirense
20	Shots	6
10	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
4	Corners	2
1	Offsides	2
64%	Possession	36%
604	Passes	335
546	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting CP 2.14 · Moreirense 0.57. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Sporting CP 20 · Moreirense 6; on target 10 and 2.
Sporting CP kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

Fábio Veríssimo→

5.63

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 83.7%: “Sporting CP to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 12.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.62 for Sporting CP, 0.50 for Moreirense.
The highest double chance value is 96.0% (1X — Sporting CP win or draw).
These values were computed from 876 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting CP to win83.7%

Draw12.3%

Moreirense to win4.0%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 481 of 572 predictions were correct (84.1%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Sporting CP lead at half-time55.2%

Level at half-time36.0%

Moreirense lead at half-time8.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Sporting CP ahead or level91.1%

12 — not level at half-time64.0%

X2 — level or Moreirense ahead44.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 876 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sporting CP: at least 12Actual: 8
Moreirense: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

Sporting CP: at least 6Actual: 4
Moreirense: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting CP score2.14

Attack: Sporting CP score 73% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Moreirense's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.14 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Moreirense score0.57

Attack: Moreirense score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sporting CP concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.57 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–015.7%3–013.9%1–010.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.