Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 29

Estrela–Farense

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 April 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio José Gomes, Amadora

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 3.5% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

47'FarenseRui Costa (assist: Derick Poloni)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Estrela		Farense
13	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	3
5	Offsides	2
59%	Possession	41%
379	Passes	271
285	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Estrela 1.20 · Farense 1.03. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Estrela 13 · Farense 10; on target 3 and 5.
Estrela kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Fábio Veríssimo→

5.70

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.4%: “Estrela to win”. Second comes “Farense to win” at 32.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for Estrela, 1.10 for Farense.
The highest double chance value is 69.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 869 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Estrela to win36.4%

Draw30.7%

Farense to win32.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

22	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Estrela lead at half-time23.5%

Level at half-time48.4%

Farense lead at half-time28.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Estrela ahead or level71.9%

12 — not level at half-time51.6%

X2 — level or Farense ahead76.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 869 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Estrela: at least 13Actual: 22
Farense: at least 15Actual: 11

Corners

Estrela: at least 4Actual: 7
Farense: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Estrela score1.20

Attack: Estrela score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Farense's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Farense score1.03

Attack: Farense score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Estrela's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%1–011.3%0–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.