Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 29

Santa Clara–Sporting CP

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 April 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'Sporting CPGeny Catamo (assist: Trincao)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Santa Clara		Sporting CP
10	Shots	7
1	Shots on target	4
5	Shots inside the box	3
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
37%	Possession	63%
256	Passes	462
166	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Santa Clara 0.87 · Sporting CP 1.64. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Santa Clara 10 · Sporting CP 7; on target 1 and 4.
Sporting CP kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Cláudio Pereira→

4.40

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.2%: “Sporting CP to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.68 for Santa Clara, 1.70 for Sporting CP.
The highest double chance value is 86.8% (X2 — draw or Sporting CP win).
These values were computed from 867 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Santa Clara to win13.2%

Draw24.6%

Sporting CP to win62.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	11

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Santa Clara lead at half-time17.1%

Level at half-time41.9%

Sporting CP lead at half-time41.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Santa Clara ahead or level59.0%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Sporting CP ahead82.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 867 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Santa Clara: at least 15Actual: 18
Sporting CP: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Santa Clara: at least 3Actual: 3
Sporting CP: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Santa Clara score0.87

Attack: Santa Clara score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sporting CP concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sporting CP score1.64

Attack: Sporting CP score 74% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Santa Clara concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.64 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

0–115.2%0–213.8%1–112.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.