Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 29

GIL Vicente–Vitória SC

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 11 April 2025 at 19:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

77'Vitória SCGustavo Silva

Match statistics

Match statistics
GIL Vicente		Vitória SC
7	Shots	7
1	Shots on target	1
2	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
445	Passes	472
353	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GIL Vicente 0.98 · Vitória SC 1.38. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots GIL Vicente 7 · Vitória SC 7; on target 1 and 1.

Referee

Ricardo Baixinho→

6.58

yellows per match

0.46

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.4%: “Vitória SC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.96 for GIL Vicente, 1.32 for Vitória SC.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (X2 — draw or Vitória SC win).
These values were computed from 864 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GIL Vicente to win25.7%

Draw29.9%

Vitória SC to win44.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	18

1	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

GIL Vicente lead at half-time25.2%

Level at half-time47.9%

Vitória SC lead at half-time26.9%

First-half double chance

1X — GIL Vicente ahead or level73.1%

12 — not level at half-time52.1%

X2 — level or Vitória SC ahead74.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 864 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GIL Vicente: at least 12Actual: 12
Vitória SC: at least 14Actual: 18

Corners

GIL Vicente: at least 4Actual: 1
Vitória SC: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GIL Vicente score0.98

Attack: GIL Vicente score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Vitória SC concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vitória SC score1.38

Attack: Vitória SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: GIL Vicente's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%0–112.8%0–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.