Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 28

Sporting CP–SC Braga

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 7 April 2025 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 19%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'Sporting CPV. Gyökeres
87'SC BragaA. Patrao (assist: R. Zalazar)
90+5'SC BragaJ. Moutinho · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting CP		SC Braga
15	Shots	9
7	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
4	Corners	0
2	Offsides	0
48%	Possession	52%
418	Passes	448
345	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting CP 2.04 · SC Braga 0.90. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Sporting CP 15 · SC Braga 9; on target 7 and 3.

Referee

Luís Godinho→

5.04

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.6%: “Sporting CP to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.19 for Sporting CP, 0.81 for SC Braga.
The highest double chance value is 89.0% (1X — Sporting CP win or draw).
These values were computed from 863 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting CP to win69.6%

Draw19.4%

SC Braga to win11.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	21

3	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sporting CP lead at half-time35.0%

Level at half-time42.4%

SC Braga lead at half-time22.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Sporting CP ahead or level77.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or SC Braga ahead65.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 863 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sporting CP: at least 11Actual: 11
SC Braga: at least 12Actual: 21

Corners

Sporting CP: at least 5
SC Braga: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting CP score2.04

Attack: Sporting CP score 76% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: SC Braga concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.04 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Braga score0.90

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Sporting CP concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.3%2–110.7%1–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.