Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 28

GIL Vicente–Moreirense

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 April 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

48'MoreirenseG. Frimpong (assist: Alanzinho)

Match statistics

Match statistics
GIL Vicente		Moreirense
12	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	0
0	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
496	Passes	357
424	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GIL Vicente 1.14 · Moreirense 1.13. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots GIL Vicente 12 · Moreirense 8; on target 4 and 3.
GIL Vicente kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

José Bessa→

3.73

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.1%: “GIL Vicente to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for GIL Vicente, 0.94 for Moreirense.
The highest double chance value is 71.0% (1X — GIL Vicente win or draw).
These values were computed from 858 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GIL Vicente to win39.1%

Draw31.9%

Moreirense to win29.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

GIL Vicente lead at half-time25.3%

Level at half-time46.4%

Moreirense lead at half-time28.3%

First-half double chance

1X — GIL Vicente ahead or level71.7%

12 — not level at half-time53.6%

X2 — level or Moreirense ahead74.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 858 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GIL Vicente: at least 12Actual: 15
Moreirense: at least 14Actual: 14

Corners

GIL Vicente: at least 4
Moreirense: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GIL Vicente score1.14

Attack: GIL Vicente score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Moreirense's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Moreirense score1.13

Attack: Moreirense score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: GIL Vicente's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%1–013.5%0–012.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.