Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 27

Famalicao–AVS

4–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 March 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Vila Nova de Famalicão

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

52'FamalicaoS. Elisor (assist: Rodrigo Pinheiro)
62'AVSNene (assist: T. Tavares)
63'FamalicaoMathias De Amorim
77'FamalicaoSorriso (assist: Tom Van De Looi)
90+1'FamalicaoM. Zabiri

Match statistics

Match statistics
Famalicao		AVS
16	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	1
12	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
60%	Possession	40%
519	Passes	353
448	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Famalicao 1.43 · AVS 0.98. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Famalicao 16 · AVS 6; on target 4 and 1.
Famalicao kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

José Bessa→

3.71

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.9%: “Famalicao to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for Famalicao, 0.84 for AVS.
The highest double chance value is 82.7% (1X — Famalicao win or draw).
These values were computed from 849 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Famalicao to win56.9%

Draw25.8%

AVS to win17.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,775 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	21

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Famalicao lead at half-time49.2%

Level at half-time40.5%

AVS lead at half-time10.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Famalicao ahead or level89.7%

12 — not level at half-time59.5%

X2 — level or AVS ahead50.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 849 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Famalicao: at least 13Actual: 15
AVS: at least 14Actual: 21

Corners

Famalicao: at least 5Actual: 4
AVS: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Famalicao score1.43

Attack: Famalicao score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AVS's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AVS score0.98

Attack: AVS score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Famalicao's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%1–013.0%2–011.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.