Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 24

GIL Vicente–Benfica

0–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 28 March 2025 at 20:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'BenficaFredrik Aursnes (assist: Bruma)
51'BenficaA. Belotti
90+7'BenficaÁ. Di María (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
GIL Vicente		Benfica
7	Shots	18
2	Shots on target	7
1	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
43%	Possession	57%
417	Passes	566
353	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GIL Vicente 0.75 · Benfica 2.07. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots GIL Vicente 7 · Benfica 18; on target 2 and 7.
Benfica kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Miguel Nogueira→

4.00

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.0%: “Benfica to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.68 for GIL Vicente, 2.15 for Benfica.
The highest double chance value is 90.9% (X2 — draw or Benfica win).
These values were computed from 845 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GIL Vicente to win9.1%

Draw18.9%

Benfica to win72.0%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	16

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

GIL Vicente lead at half-time13.7%

Level at half-time40.7%

Benfica lead at half-time45.6%

First-half double chance

1X — GIL Vicente ahead or level54.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.3%

X2 — level or Benfica ahead86.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 845 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GIL Vicente: at least 10Actual: 9
Benfica: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

GIL Vicente: at least 3Actual: 5
Benfica: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GIL Vicente score0.75

Attack: GIL Vicente score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Benfica concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.75 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Benfica score2.07

Attack: Benfica score 79% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: GIL Vicente's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–214.1%0–112.0%1–210.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.