Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 26

Sporting CP–Famalicao

3–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 March 2025 at 20:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'Sporting CPIván Fresneda (assist: Trincao)
35'FamalicaoÓscar Aranda (penalty)
64'Sporting CPV. Gyökeres (penalty)
80'Sporting CPM. Araújo · red card
88'Sporting CPGeny Catamo (assist: V. Gyökeres)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting CP		Famalicao
18	Shots	9
9	Shots on target	3
14	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
11	Corners	4
0	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
448	Passes	397
384	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting CP 2.33 · Famalicao 0.55. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Sporting CP 18 · Famalicao 9; on target 9 and 3.

Referee

Miguel Nogueira→

3.98

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.0%: “Sporting CP to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.33 for Sporting CP, 0.73 for Famalicao.
The highest double chance value is 91.3% (1X — Sporting CP win or draw).
These values were computed from 839 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting CP to win74.0%

Draw17.3%

Famalicao to win8.7%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	13

4	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Sporting CP lead at half-time56.5%

Level at half-time34.9%

Famalicao lead at half-time8.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Sporting CP ahead or level91.4%

12 — not level at half-time65.1%

X2 — level or Famalicao ahead43.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 839 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sporting CP: at least 13Actual: 10
Famalicao: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Sporting CP: at least 6Actual: 11
Famalicao: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting CP score2.33

Attack: Sporting CP score 73% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Famalicao's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Famalicao score0.55

Attack: Famalicao score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sporting CP concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.1%2–110.2%1–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.