Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 26

FC Porto–AVS

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 March 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Do Dragão, Porto

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'FC PortoRodrigo Mora
46'AVSN. Rodríguez · red card
61'FC PortoFábio Vieira (assist: Francisco Moura)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Porto		AVS
20	Shots	8
10	Shots on target	2
14	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	8
4	Corners	3
1	Offsides	0
68%	Possession	32%
649	Passes	298
589	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Porto 2.21 · AVS 0.54. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots FC Porto 20 · AVS 8; on target 10 and 2.
FC Porto kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

Fábio Veríssimo→

5.68

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 78.5%: “FC Porto to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.35 for FC Porto, 0.56 for AVS.
The highest double chance value is 94.0% (1X — FC Porto win or draw).
These values were computed from 838 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Porto to win78.5%

Draw15.5%

AVS to win6.0%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

19	Fouls	8

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 793 of 1,863 predictions were correct (42.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FC Porto win or draw94.0%

12 — any result other than a draw84.5%

X2 — draw or AVS win21.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (15.5%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

FC Porto lead at half-time56.3%

Level at half-time37.0%

AVS lead at half-time6.7%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Porto ahead or level93.3%

12 — not level at half-time63.0%

X2 — level or AVS ahead43.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 838 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Porto: at least 12Actual: 19
AVS: at least 13Actual: 8

Corners

FC Porto: at least 6Actual: 4
AVS: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals56.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,356 of 4,136 predictions were correct (57.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Porto score2.21

Attack: FC Porto score above the league average (41% more).

Opponent's defence: AVS's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AVS score0.54

Attack: AVS score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Porto concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–015.7%3–012.2%1–012.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 838 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 25 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.