Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 26

GIL Vicente–Santa Clara

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 March 2025 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 2% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'Santa ClaraJ. Costa (assist: P. Ferreira)

Match statistics

Match statistics
GIL Vicente		Santa Clara
12	Shots	3
2	Shots on target	1
6	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	0
0	Offsides	6
68%	Possession	32%
575	Passes	283
485	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GIL Vicente 1.09 · Santa Clara 1.21. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots GIL Vicente 12 · Santa Clara 3; on target 2 and 1.
GIL Vicente kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

Iancu Vasilica→

3.71

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 34.7%: “GIL Vicente to win”. Second comes “Santa Clara to win” at 32.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.03 for GIL Vicente, 0.99 for Santa Clara.
The highest double chance value is 67.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 836 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GIL Vicente to win34.7%

Draw32.6%

Santa Clara to win32.7%

When the model has said 30–35% in the past, 2,630 of 8,432 predictions were correct (31.2%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	21

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

GIL Vicente lead at half-time29.0%

Level at half-time48.6%

Santa Clara lead at half-time22.3%

First-half double chance

1X — GIL Vicente ahead or level77.7%

12 — not level at half-time51.4%

X2 — level or Santa Clara ahead71.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 836 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GIL Vicente: at least 11Actual: 13
Santa Clara: at least 15Actual: 21

Corners

GIL Vicente: at least 4
Santa Clara: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GIL Vicente score1.09

Attack: GIL Vicente score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Santa Clara concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Santa Clara score1.21

Attack: Santa Clara score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: GIL Vicente's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.7%0–013.0%1–012.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.