Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 26

Farense–SC Braga

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 March 2025 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio de São Lúis, Faro

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

70'SC BragaG. Martinez (assist: R. Horta)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Farense		SC Braga
11	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
12	Corners	4
4	Offsides	0
44%	Possession	56%
295	Passes	402
217	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Farense 0.97 · SC Braga 1.70. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Farense 11 · SC Braga 10; on target 3 and 4.
SC Braga kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Gustavo Correia→

6.02

yellows per match

0.45

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.0%: “SC Braga to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.99 for Farense, 1.51 for SC Braga.
The highest double chance value is 76.7% (X2 — draw or SC Braga win).
These values were computed from 836 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Farense to win23.3%

Draw27.7%

SC Braga to win49.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

19	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Farense lead at half-time19.2%

Level at half-time47.1%

SC Braga lead at half-time33.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Farense ahead or level66.3%

12 — not level at half-time52.9%

X2 — level or SC Braga ahead80.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 836 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Farense: at least 13Actual: 19
SC Braga: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Farense: at least 4Actual: 12
SC Braga: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Farense score0.97

Attack: Farense score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SC Braga's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Braga score1.70

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Farense's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%0–111.7%1–210.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.