Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 25

Boavista–Vitória SC

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 March 2025 at 20:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Porto

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45+2'BoavistaM. van Ginkel (penalty)
50'Vitória SCI. Vukotic (own goal)
76'Vitória SCTiago Silva (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Boavista		Vitória SC
7	Shots	19
4	Shots on target	8
5	Shots inside the box	12
7	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	7
1	Offsides	0
34%	Possession	66%
265	Passes	509
177	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Boavista 0.89 · Vitória SC 1.50. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Boavista 7 · Vitória SC 19; on target 4 and 8.
Vitória SC kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

João Pedro Pinheiro→

4.72

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.7%: “Vitória SC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.75 for Boavista, 1.60 for Vitória SC.
The highest double chance value is 84.0% (X2 — draw or Vitória SC win).
These values were computed from 834 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Boavista to win16.0%

Draw26.3%

Vitória SC to win57.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,775 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

17	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Boavista lead at half-time17.1%

Level at half-time46.2%

Vitória SC lead at half-time36.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Boavista ahead or level63.3%

12 — not level at half-time53.8%

X2 — level or Vitória SC ahead82.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 834 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Boavista: at least 12Actual: 17
Vitória SC: at least 13Actual: 16

Corners

Boavista: at least 4Actual: 2
Vitória SC: at least 5Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Boavista score0.89

Attack: Boavista score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Vitória SC concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vitória SC score1.50

Attack: Vitória SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Boavista concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–114.8%1–113.1%0–212.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.