Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 25

Casa Pia–Sporting CP

1–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 March 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'Sporting CPGonçalo Inácio (assist: Geovany Tcherno Quenda)
34'Sporting CPV. Gyökeres (assist: M. Hjulmand)
45'Casa PiaRicardo Esgaio (own goal)
77'Sporting CPV. Gyökeres (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Casa Pia		Sporting CP
10	Shots	17
3	Shots on target	6
4	Shots inside the box	14
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	4
2	Offsides	0
52%	Possession	48%
414	Passes	386
332	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Casa Pia 0.82 · Sporting CP 1.89. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Casa Pia 10 · Sporting CP 17; on target 3 and 6.

Referee

Hélder Malheiro→

5.77

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.9%: “Sporting CP to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.74 for Casa Pia, 1.88 for Sporting CP.
The highest double chance value is 87.4% (X2 — draw or Sporting CP win).
These values were computed from 833 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Casa Pia to win12.6%

Draw22.5%

Sporting CP to win64.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	10

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Casa Pia lead at half-time16.6%

Level at half-time38.6%

Sporting CP lead at half-time44.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Casa Pia ahead or level55.2%

12 — not level at half-time61.4%

X2 — level or Sporting CP ahead83.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 833 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Casa Pia: at least 13Actual: 9
Sporting CP: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Casa Pia: at least 3Actual: 4
Sporting CP: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Casa Pia score0.82

Attack: Casa Pia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sporting CP concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sporting CP score1.89

Attack: Sporting CP score 71% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Casa Pia's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–213.3%0–113.1%1–111.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.